2008 Election Project- Week #4

Presidential Polls

The first poll that I looked at was from presidentpolls2008.com.


State
Pollster
Date
Obama
McCain
Ipsos
Ipsos
10/9-13
Nat'l Polls
48%
39%
PEW
Pew
10/9-12
50%
40%
FL
CNN
10/11-14
51%
46%
FL
IADV
10/13
48%
44%
GA
CNN
10/11-14
45%
53%
NC
IADV
10/13
48%
46%
VA
CNN
10/11-14
53%
43%
MO
CNN
10/11-14

48%
49%
WA
SUSA
10/12-13
56%
40%
CO
CNN
10/11-14
51%
47%
SC
SUSA
10/12-13
41%
55%
NM
SUSA
10/12-13
52%
45%
NV
IADV
10/13
49%
46%
WV
IADV
10/13
47%
49%
DE
Rass
10/10

56%
41%



As seen, the majority of the population are leaning towards obama (top percentage). However, in West Vriginia, McCain is winning by 2%. This is because WV is a mostly argrarian state and not very urban. Many guns are owned in that state, many people are farmers in that state, and many people are concervative on social issues in that state.



This second poll is got from usaelectionpolls.com




State
Pollster
Date
Obama
McCain
NY
Rass
10/14
57%
37%
OH
Rass
10/14
49%
49%
VA
CNU
10/11-14
49%
43%
MA
SUSA
10/13-14

59%
35%
CT
Rass
10/14
56%
39%
OR
Rass
10/14
54%
41%



In this poll, Obama is winning everything except for Ohio. In New York, Obama has a very large gap between his opponent. This is beause northern states tend to be more liberal, and because New York is very liberal with its very dense population in places such as NYC. Ohio, a key state, is tied because both have used many resources to campaign in that state. At the moment, VA is leaning towards Obama, but only by a few points. There is a high chance that VA will be voting democratic in the election this year!!

Senate Polls

This poll I got from rasmussenreports.com (Gilmore is top percentage)

Date
Gilmore
Warner
09/25/2008
34%
60%
08/12/2008
33%
59%
07/19/2008
34%
57%
06/12/2008
33%
60%
05/08/2008
37%
55%
03/26/2008
39%
55%
02/19/2008
37%
57%
01/03/2008
38%
53%
10/30/2007
37%
53%

This poll has Warner destroying gilmore. I believe that this is happening because people do not trust gilmore and trust warner. I must say that I trust warner more. From what I have read, gilmore does not seem like the key person for this state. Senate is important, and we do not want to waste our votes on a person like gilmore who seems very slimy and knieving!!

This poll was taken from this link http://www.pollster.com/polls/va/08-va-sen-ge-gvw.php?xml=/flashcharts/content/xml/08VASenGEGvW.xml&choices=Warner,Gilmore&phone=&ivr=&internet=&mail=&smoothing=&from_date=&to_date=&min_pct=&max_pct=&grid=&points=&trends=&lines==

It has warner beating gilmore. The trend lines are separating, having gilmore falling and warner rising. As I said before, I think people don't trust gilmore from his beliefs and statements.

Other Stuff

Polling is a HUGE part in the election. It allows people to see what different citizens of the nation are thinking and wanting. In an election, is could possibly pursuade votes for the independent mass. It can also prematurely decide a "winner" and create an upset if the predicted winner does not win. Polls have been around for many years and stay around because people like to know what others think, it's human nature. We have been learning about polls in goernment and have found out that they are really accurate. The gallup poll that was started in the 1930s was known for being very accurate. This acurracy has made it a very prestige poll and has always been very reliable.

K...the boring thing is over...so...

PEACE...